Thursday, April 10, 2008

投資,有甚麼目標?

為免做一隻股盲頭烏蠅,我先把市面的「投資指南」、「投資重點」之類的文件找來看。通常要回答幾個問題。

(1) 目標想要多少錢?
答:唉呀,真難回答...
如果一年有12%回報(非常樂觀的情況),「十萬倉」本金,就得到1.2萬,平均每個月可以有$1,000零錢花。如果一百萬元,每年得十二萬。如果一千萬元,每年賺一百二十萬,景氣不好時也有七、八十萬,每個月可得七至十萬...那麼,目標就是一千萬吧!

(2) 投資年期是多少年?
答:咦? 從來沒想過。
假設六十歲左右退休,二十年吧。

(3) 你可以接受甚麼程度的風險?
答:據說,越年青的人可承擔越高風險。我不太年青,但如果仍有二十年,似乎可以高風險...
中至高風險吧。反正要遵守畢菲特的名言:「第一,不可以輸錢。第二,不可忘記第一點。」

從這些答案,我可以做的投資組合是:75%股票、25%現金或債券。

二十年,十萬變一千萬...有如不可能的任務。我一定搞錯了甚麼。

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Levander,

assuming 12% IRR for the coming 20years, the expected amount you are getting in 20years with 100,000 principal should be:

100,000 * [(1 + 12%)^20] = 964,629

which is still a bit far from your 10,000,000 target.

also this is assuming that you are re-investing all the money back into the investment vehicle, so no pocket money for you in the coming 20years I'm afraid.

to get to 10,000,000 in 20 years with only 100,000 principal, the expected return should be much higher:

100,000 * [(1 + IRR%) ^ 20] = 10,000,000

IRR% = 25.9%

i.e. you need to find an investment vehicle which will generate 25.9% per annum for the coming 20years to reach your target.

good luck

Patrick

Anonymous said...

其實假如你每月都做定期投資的話,這個目標其實不難達到.

假如你希望在20年後擁有$10,000,000, 而你每年所需的投資回報是12% (這當然要考慮所選擇的投資工具是什麼), 那麼你每月只須投資$10,200便可達標. 可是如果要撇除通脹的影響(假如每年通脹約5%), 這樣你每月就需要投資$26,821才可達標.

Joseph

Anonymous said...

不好意思, 剛才第二個情況的計算有錯誤.

並不需要每月投資$27,000那麼多, 大概$20,000 就足夠了. (因為預期的淨回報應該是6.7%p.a.)

Joseph

張宏艷 said...

patrick:
謝謝你的計算。嗯,25.9%回報,我要做大耳窿放高利貸才成...

joseph:
謝謝你的儲蓄計劃。每個月儲蓄$20,000,倒不如買一層樓出租。成功的話,租客已承擔了部分費用。難怪這麼多人買樓。

讓我這個理財白痴再消化消化...

Anonymous said...

買樓不同, 因為它是槓桿式投資, 風險大很多. 97/98年給很多投資者一個大教訓.

Joseph

Anonymous said...

IRR formula!!
俾番晒老師了.
HAHAHAHA

Anonymous said...

其实交给专业人士来为你做投资也不错,当然,他们赚你的钱,但是如果他们懂得把饼变大,那又何况? 和你一样,工作很忙,还有希望多享受生活,花不起时间来学各种各样的投资工具,但是理财却又不能不做,我有MPF,储蓄基金(退休后每月收钱,直到死,不怕太长命失去预算),收租够供楼的物业,蓝筹股票投资(只做长线不会短炒),省心之余回报还算不错!

SOSO

くれくれ厨 said...

ないwwまじないwwwwww
なんでアレだけで10マンもくれるの???ww
金持ちってスゲー( ゚д゚)ポカーン
ごちそうさまでしたwww
http://tomama.net/ona/

Anonymous said...

張宏艷 said...

joseph:
謝謝你的儲蓄計劃。每個月儲蓄$20,000,倒不如買一層樓出租。成功的話,租客已承擔了部分費用。難怪這麼多人買樓。

妳說的對,Why we want you to be rich by Donald Trump & Robert T Kiyosaki一書有解釋~~~~~~:)

Daniel.

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